Quantifying the global impact of life-saving vaccines

Embargoed until: Publicly released:
Peer-reviewed: This work was reviewed and scrutinised by relevant independent experts.

Simulation/modelling: This type of study uses a computer simulation or mathematical model to predict an outcome. The original values put into the model may have come from real-world measurements (eg: past spread of a disease used to model its future spread).

Researchers have mapped the global impact of life-saving vaccines to mark the 50-year anniversary of the Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI). The findings show that since 1974, vaccination has saved approximately 154 million lives – most of these children under the age of five. The study, funded by the WHO, was led by Associate Professor Andrew Shattock from Telethon Kids Institute and The University of Western Australia, with contributions from researchers from around the globe.

Journal/conference: The Lancet

Link to research (DOI): 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00850-X

Organisation/s: Telethon Kids Institute, World Health Organization (WHO), The University of Western Australia, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland, Safinea Ltd., London, UK, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA, Imperial College, London, UK, Kid Risk, Inc., Orlando, FL, USA, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA, Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa, Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa, Centre for Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, Oxford University, Oxford, United Kingdom, TB Modelling Group, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Department, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK

Funder: World Health Organization,

Media release

From: Telethon Kids Institute

Researchers at Telethon Kids Institute have helped map the global impact of life-saving vaccines to mark the 50-year anniversary of the Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI).

The findings show that since 1974, vaccination has saved approximately 154 million lives – most of these children under the age of five.

The study, funded by the World Health Organization, was led by Andrew Shattock, an Associate Professor in the Intervention and Infectious Diseases Modelling Team at Telethon Kids Institute and The University of Western Australia, with contributions from researchers from around the globe.

The EPI was an initiative established by the World Health Assembly in 1974 with the goal to vaccinate all children against smallpox, tuberculosis, diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, polio and measles by 1990. The program was then expanded to include other diseases.

Researchers used a suite of mathematical and statistical modelling to map the global impact of the program, with incredible findings.

“We estimate that the EPI has provided the single greatest contribution to infant survival over the past 50 years,” Associate Professor Shattock said.

“The collaborative efforts of countries around the world to implement the EPI has averted approximately 154 million deaths – significantly, around 146 million children under the age of five.

“The study found that for every death averted, 66 years of full health were gained, on average.”

Dr Shattock said the findings estimated that vaccination had accounted for 40 per cent of the observed decline in global infant mortality. In Africa it was 52 per cent.

“In 2024 a child at any age under 10 years is 40 per cent more likely to survive to their next birthday thanks to vaccination efforts over the past 50 years.  Increased survival probability is observed even well into late adulthood,” he said.

“We also discovered that measles vaccination accounted for 60 per cent of the total benefit of vaccination over the 50-year period, which was also the greatest driver of lives saved.”

The findings, to be published in the prestigious medical journal The Lancet, were released as part of the World Immunisation Week. The full report is available here.

Telethon Kids Institute hosts the Vaccine Trials Group, a team of doctors, nurses, researchers, scientists, students and phlebotomists testing and evaluating the safety and effectiveness of new vaccines for a range of diseases, as well as monitoring vaccines.

The Group was established in 2000 to provide a coordinated approach to the development, delivery, assessment and promotion of vaccines, infectious disease and allergy treatments in the community.

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